Company Research: Eldorado Gold Corporation - NYSE: EGO · TSX: ELD

Executive Summary

Eldorado Gold is no longer best understood as a capital-hungry developer with a controversial Greek project. Through Q1 2026, the financial statements show a company that is already profitable and cash-generative on its existing four-mine base, while standing on the threshold of a second, larger leg of growth: the McIlvenna Bay copper-zinc-gold-silver mine in Saskatchewan, acquired through the April 2026 Foran Mining transaction, produced its first copper concentrate on June 7, 2026 — on schedule, for commercial production guided to Q3 2026. Skouries, the 20-year copper-gold project in northern Greece, was 94% complete as of March 31, 2026, with first concentrate tracking to early Q3 2026 and commercial production to Q4 2026. Both projects are now in late-stage commissioning, not early-stage construction — and that distinction, once both are commercial, adds copper to a gold-only production base, adds Canada to a footprint historically concentrated in Türkiye and Greece, and retires the single-project execution-risk overhang that has anchored Eldorado’s valuation discount to mid-tier peers for more than two years.

On Q1 2026 results, Eldorado generated $532.4 million of revenue (+50% year-over-year), net earnings attributable to shareholders of $136.4 million ($0.69/share basic), and adjusted net earnings of $188.2 million ($0.95/share). It paid its first-ever quarterly dividend in March 2026, declared a second in April, and repurchased $83.9 million of stock — all in the same quarter it spent $311 million of cash capex on growth. What obscures the story for casual readers is that heavy capex: strip out Skouries-specific spending and free cash flow excluding Skouries was a positive $62.9 million in the quarter, down only modestly from $67.9 million a year earlier. As Skouries capital rolls off in the second half of 2026 and both growth projects begin contributing revenue rather than consuming cash, Museum Park Capital’s own model projects an approximately 24% free cash flow yield for Eldorado in 2027.

Key Q1 2026 Operating and Financial Snapshot

Metric	Q1 2026	Q1 2025	Y/Y
Revenue ($M)	$532.4	$355.2	+50%
Gold produced (oz)	100,358	115,893	-13%
Average realized gold price ($/oz)	$4,891	$2,933	+67%
AISC ($/oz sold)	$1,942	$1,559	+25%
Net earnings attrib. to shareholders ($M)	$136.4	$72.0	+89%
Adjusted EPS, basic ($/share)	$0.95	$0.28	+239%
Free cash flow ($M)	($129.1)	($29.4)	n/m
Free cash flow excluding Skouries ($M)	$62.9	$67.9	-7%

Source: Q1 2026 Condensed Consolidated Interim Financial Statements; Q1 2026 MD&A.

Why the Market Still Has This Wrong

A central observation of this analysis is that Eldorado already earns substantial, growing profits from its existing four-mine base — a 55% margin on mine operations in Q1 2026 — while the market continues to price the equity heavily on the binary outcome of Skouries, a project that is now 94% complete. BofA Global Research’s North American precious metals comparable-company tables place Eldorado at a 2026E/2027E P/E of 5.1x/6.2x against a mid-tier peer average of 9.1x/8.4x, and a P/NAV of 0.81x against a peer average of 1.07x — Eldorado is the cheapest or close to the cheapest name in its own mid-tier comparable set on nearly every published multiple.

We see Eldorado as making five distinct transitions simultaneously, not one, and it is the simultaneity that makes this more than a simple project-completion story:

• A larger gold producer, as Skouries layers onto the existing four-mine base
• A copper producer for the first time in company history, via two separate assets rather than one
• A capital-return story, having initiated its first-ever dividend and meaningfully repurchased stock in the same quarter it spent $311 million on growth capital
• A jurisdictionally diversified company, adding Canada to a footprint historically concentrated in Türkiye and Greece
• A company shedding the single-project execution-risk discount that has anchored its valuation for more than two years

Individually, none of these is a reason a peer-relative multiple should re-rate. The case for why now is that all of it — Skouries and McIlvenna Bay both reaching commercial production, the modeled 2027 free cash flow inflection from roughly negative $93 million to a positive $1,617 million, continued buybacks and a now-recurring dividend, and the mechanical retirement of the single-project discount — is scheduled to resolve inside the same six-to-twelve-month window.

Valuation: The Cheapest Name in Its Peer Group

Metric	ELD/EGO	AGI	BTG	IAG	Peer Avg.
P/NAV	0.81x	1.19x	0.95x	1.21x	1.07x
P/E (2026E)	5.1x	14.0x	4.6x	6.4x	9.1x
EV/EBIT (2026E)	4.7x	9.0x	7.8x	4.8x	5.8x
EV/EBITDA (2026E)	3.9x	8.0x	2.5x	4.9x	4.9x

Source: BofA Global Research, North American precious metals valuation and EV/EBIT-EBITDA comparables, June 2026 publications.

Applying the average 2027E EV/EBITDA multiple of Eldorado’s closest mid-tier comparables (Alamos Gold, B2Gold, Endeavour Mining, and IAMGOLD) to our 2027E EBITDA estimate of $2,533 million — net of forecast year-end 2026 net cash, on a pro forma diluted share count of approximately 261 million shares — implies a per-share sensitivity in the C$68.00 (~US$50.00) range. A sum-of-the-parts build, applying project-specific discount rates to each asset individually, independently produces a closely corroborating net asset value of approximately C$68.02/share. We present this as a peer-relative sensitivity and cross-check for investors to weigh themselves, not as a derived fair-value conclusion or a price target — this report does not contain investment recommendations or price targets.

Key Risks

• Skouries power connection slips materially beyond mid-Q3. The Greek power authority’s final energization checks are partially outside Eldorado’s control; a delay would push Skouries toward the bottom of its 2026 guidance range.
• McIlvenna Bay ramp-up hits metallurgical or flotation circuit issues. First concentrate is a milestone, not commercial production — the optimization work remaining is the same category of issue that has historically caused multi-quarter delays at comparable polymetallic projects.
• Turkish Lira weakness or further royalty increases erode Kışladağ/Efemçukuru economics; both assets are already running at materially higher AISC than a year ago on a broadened royalty sliding scale.
• Gold or copper prices retreat from current levels. Our model embeds a 2027 gold price assumption of $5,200/oz, well above the Q1 2026 realized price; a correction would compress the valuation sensitivities above independent of any operational issue (though it would likely compress peer multiples similarly, leaving relative standing largely intact).
• Foran integration proves more complex than the transaction structure suggests — a new asset, a new board member, a new jurisdiction, and a CEO transition are all landing inside the same twelve-month window as the Skouries and McIlvenna Bay ramps.

What We’re Watching

• Skouries power-line energization and final regulatory checks with the Greek power authority — the single most important near-term timing catalyst (early Q3 vs. mid-Q3 2026 startup)
• McIlvenna Bay flotation circuit and reagent optimization progress, and confirmation of Q3 2026 commercial production
• Q2 2026 results, expected to include McIlvenna Bay-specific production and cost guidance, expansion-study timing, and a lead-silver circuit evaluation
• Any disclosed delay at either project beyond the mid-Q3 2026 downside scenario already embedded in guidance, particularly if paired with an incremental cost increase
• A reduction or suspension of the dividend or buyback program, which would contrast sharply with the capital-return signal in this analysis

Bottom Line

Eldorado trades at roughly 60% of our sum-of-the-parts NAV estimate, and at a discount to nearly every named peer in BofA’s mid-tier comparable set on P/E, P/CFPS, P/NAV, EV/EBIT, and EV/EBITDA alike — unusual for a company that has just cleared its largest near-term catalyst (McIlvenna Bay first concentrate, delivered on schedule) and is 94% complete on its second (Skouries), with management stating explicitly there is no cost read-through from the recent capital increase.

Put simply: the market continues to value Eldorado on yesterday’s risk profile, despite the underlying business having already transitioned toward tomorrow’s cash-flow profile.

Important Disclosure. This analysis was prepared from primary sources including Eldorado Gold’s Q1 2026 Condensed Consolidated Interim Financial Statements, Q1 2026 MD&A, the May 1, 2026 earnings call transcript, the company’s June 2026 investor presentation, BofA Global Research’s North American precious metals comparables (June 2026), and FactSet consensus comparables (June 1, 2026). Certain qualitative narrative content regarding company leadership and capital allocators is carried forward from prior Museum Park Capital research based on user-supplied interview material and has not been independently re-verified against primary sources; it is presented as context, not as independently confirmed fact. This report does not contain investment recommendations or price targets; all valuation multiples, sensitivities, and scenario paths represent analytical judgment as of the date of publication and are not guarantees of future performance. Museum Park Capital is not affiliated with BofA Global Research or FactSet.